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FT 22 MAY 92 / Military drives Nigeria to the brink: Michael Holman looks
at the causes of political malaise in Africa's most populous country
By MICHAEL HOLMAN
'NIGERIA is in the grip of a revolutionary pressure,' warned African
Concorde, one of the country's leading weekly news magazines, in mid-April.
An irate government confiscated the strongly critical issue and closed the
magazine for two weeks, but the warning is proving prophetic.
Nearly seven years after seizing office in a bloodless coup, President
Ibrahim Babangida faces a crisis that threatens next January's scheduled
handover to civilian rule, and imperils the stability of Africa's most
populous state.
At least 250 people are reported to have been killed in clashes in Kaduna
state, angry youths have rioted in Lagos, the biggest city, while trouble
yesterday broke out near Abuja, the new federal capital, and in Lagos, the
largest city. Police used tear gas to break up ethnic fighting in a Lagos
market.
The violence, often described as 'religious and ethnic riots', is
undoubtedly caused in part by rivalries in a country divided between a
largely Moslem north and mainly Christian south, and with three leading
ethnic groups. But the violence is also a symptom of a different malaise.
The military government is fighting for its life, undermined by economic
mismanagement and endemic corruption, and under attack for human rights
abuses. Living standards have fallen drastically in the 12 years since
Nigeria's oil boom ended.
The roots of the crisis can be traced back many years, but what may prove to
have been the turning point for the Babangida government came last March. A
big devaluation of the naira (from 10.5 naira to Dollars 1 down to 18 naira)
was a last-ditch attempt to shore up a faltering structural adjustment
programme, and meet one of the main conditions for the renewal of a lapsed
standby agreement with the International Monetary Fund.
The result was all pain and no gain. Prices soared, and inflation is set to
reach 50 per cent later this year. The IMF negotiations that followed failed
to clear other hurdles including the size of the budget deficit. Meanwhile
the IMF deadlock holds up urgently needed rescheduling of Nigeria's Dollars
30bn external debt.
A series of other developments further eroded the government's standing. A
confidential World Bank report which reached the press was highly critical
of the lack of accountability in government spending - a polite way of
referring to corruption. Nigerians and foreign partners alike have been
dismayed by the government's profligate spending on Abuja, continued funding
of an uneconomic Dollars 5bn steel project, and a Dollars 1.4bn aluminium
project of arguable merit.
For all the promises of probity, the military elite is as corrupt as any
regime that preceded it, taking kickbacks on contracts and diverting
government funds. But for sheer audacity, the government's unrepentant
admission that it had provided middle-ranking army officers with private
cars on nominal repayment terms took some beating.
For infuriated Nigerians, with per capita income down by two-thirds over the
past decade, it was the act of a cynical self-serving regime.
If the return to civilian rule had whole-hearted support, there would be a
safety valve for the current tensions. But many Nigerians are resentful that
the government insists that only two political parties will be allowed,
their rule-books written by civil servants and indistinguishable the one
from the other.
If the violence continues, however, even this unsatisfactory path to
democracy may be closed - if not by Gen Babangida, then by his successor
from the barracks.
The Financial Times
London Page 6