FT922-6749 _AN-CEVA2AAVFT 920522 FT 22 MAY 92 / Military drives Nigeria to the brink: Michael Holman looks at the causes of political malaise in Africa's most populous country By MICHAEL HOLMAN 'NIGERIA is in the grip of a revolutionary pressure,' warned African Concorde, one of the country's leading weekly news magazines, in mid-April. An irate government confiscated the strongly critical issue and closed the magazine for two weeks, but the warning is proving prophetic. Nearly seven years after seizing office in a bloodless coup, President Ibrahim Babangida faces a crisis that threatens next January's scheduled handover to civilian rule, and imperils the stability of Africa's most populous state. At least 250 people are reported to have been killed in clashes in Kaduna state, angry youths have rioted in Lagos, the biggest city, while trouble yesterday broke out near Abuja, the new federal capital, and in Lagos, the largest city. Police used tear gas to break up ethnic fighting in a Lagos market. The violence, often described as 'religious and ethnic riots', is undoubtedly caused in part by rivalries in a country divided between a largely Moslem north and mainly Christian south, and with three leading ethnic groups. But the violence is also a symptom of a different malaise. The military government is fighting for its life, undermined by economic mismanagement and endemic corruption, and under attack for human rights abuses. Living standards have fallen drastically in the 12 years since Nigeria's oil boom ended. The roots of the crisis can be traced back many years, but what may prove to have been the turning point for the Babangida government came last March. A big devaluation of the naira (from 10.5 naira to Dollars 1 down to 18 naira) was a last-ditch attempt to shore up a faltering structural adjustment programme, and meet one of the main conditions for the renewal of a lapsed standby agreement with the International Monetary Fund. The result was all pain and no gain. Prices soared, and inflation is set to reach 50 per cent later this year. The IMF negotiations that followed failed to clear other hurdles including the size of the budget deficit. Meanwhile the IMF deadlock holds up urgently needed rescheduling of Nigeria's Dollars 30bn external debt. A series of other developments further eroded the government's standing. A confidential World Bank report which reached the press was highly critical of the lack of accountability in government spending - a polite way of referring to corruption. Nigerians and foreign partners alike have been dismayed by the government's profligate spending on Abuja, continued funding of an uneconomic Dollars 5bn steel project, and a Dollars 1.4bn aluminium project of arguable merit. For all the promises of probity, the military elite is as corrupt as any regime that preceded it, taking kickbacks on contracts and diverting government funds. But for sheer audacity, the government's unrepentant admission that it had provided middle-ranking army officers with private cars on nominal repayment terms took some beating. For infuriated Nigerians, with per capita income down by two-thirds over the past decade, it was the act of a cynical self-serving regime. If the return to civilian rule had whole-hearted support, there would be a safety valve for the current tensions. But many Nigerians are resentful that the government insists that only two political parties will be allowed, their rule-books written by civil servants and indistinguishable the one from the other. If the violence continues, however, even this unsatisfactory path to democracy may be closed - if not by Gen Babangida, then by his successor from the barracks. The Financial Times London Page 6